KJAX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

52%

36%

32%

13%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.0¢Risks 42.05u

ICONNO 58.0¢Risks 57.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.95u · ICON −57.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	55.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	63.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	70.4%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	61.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	52.6%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	0.4%	31.1%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	43.0%	29.2%	0.3%	—	31.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	66.3%	38.5%	19.4%	—	27.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	65.6%	13.4%	28.9%	—	24.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	62.5%	30.9%	17.4%	—	29.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.0%	40.3%	—	—	19.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	53.3%	38.5%	30.0%	—	20.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	26.0%	31.1%	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	33.8%	48.2%	25.5%	—	13.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	43.7%	40.2%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	32.2%	45.4%	11.5%	—	13.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	41.5%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	33.0%	31.3%	18.3%	—	14.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	23.4%	26.5%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	25.9%	30.3%	10.3%	—	12.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	28.8%	26.2%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	38.2%	38.2%	11.9%	33.1%	19.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	46.6%	0.0%	—	17.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	71%	81.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	78.6°F	2.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	76.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	75.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	67.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261022-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 79°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗