WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KJAX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
71%
EPS
52%
HRES
36%
AIFS
32%
ICON
13%
Consensus
47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 42.0¢Risks 42.05u
VS
ICONNO 58.0¢Risks 57.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.95u · ICON −57.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 31.5% · 2026-10-15T07:49:20+00:00AIFS Single: 31.5% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00AIFS Single: 31.5% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 31.5% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00AIFS Single: 31.5% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.7% · 2026-10-15T07:49:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.7% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.1% · 2026-10-15T07:49:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.1% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-15T07:49:20+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00ICON: 13.0% · 2026-10-15T07:49:20+00:00ICON: 13.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00ICON: 13.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00ICON: 13.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00ICON: 13.0% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:0010-15 07:4910-15 09:2110-15 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:49:20+00:0031.5%51.7%71.1%35.8%13.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:0031.5%51.7%71.1%35.8%13.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:0031.5%51.7%71.1%35.8%13.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:0031.5%51.7%71.1%35.8%13.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:0031.5%51.7%71.1%35.8%13.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 271%81.5°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
National Blend56%79.0°F3.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble52%78.6°F2.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS HRES36%76.2°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single32%75.8°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON13%67.3°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261022-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 79°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗