WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KJAX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
41%
AIFS
32%
WN2
28%
HRES
5%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
4%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 20.6¢Risks 20.60u
VS
EPSNO 79.4¢Risks 79.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.40u · EPS −79.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 37.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-08 06:0010-14 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:003.0%————1.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0014.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0044.7%————15.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0014.9%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0015.2%————25.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0011.5%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0050.0%————14.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0025.7%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0022.0%————27.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0018.6%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0040.0%————20.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0012.6%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0045.8%————23.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0046.8%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0034.5%————25.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0041.5%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0037.4%————22.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0036.2%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0029.5%————20.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0019.6%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0026.1%————24.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0019.3%—37.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0014.8%—32.4%——14.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0017.3%—27.5%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0010.1%————10.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0010.2%—28.3%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:001.1%—0.9%——9.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0010.3%—10.8%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0013.0%—0.7%——6.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0022.2%—2.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:002.2%0.1%8.0%——3.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0021.3%—10.7%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0015.3%14.9%5.6%0.0%—3.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0017.5%—3.8%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0013.6%16.5%6.6%1.7%—2.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:007.5%—7.2%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:009.0%5.8%6.0%3.8%—1.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:009.2%—3.3%——1.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:008.7%3.1%6.2%1.6%—0.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:006.2%0.0%4.9%——0.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:005.1%1.1%5.8%0.8%—0.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:003.6%2.4%3.1%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:001.9%0.7%2.7%0.6%—0.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:001.8%1.2%2.4%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:001.6%1.0%2.3%0.5%—0.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:001.2%1.3%1.8%——0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:001.1%1.3%1.8%0.3%1.4%0.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.8%—1.6%——0.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON41%83.9°F7.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single32%82.9°F5.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 228%82.5°F5.1°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
NWS forecast7%77.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
IFS HRES5%74.4°F6.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend4%76.0°F5.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%77.2°F2.6°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261023-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗