KJAX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

32%

28%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 20.6¢Risks 20.60u

EPSNO 79.4¢Risks 79.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.40u · EPS −79.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:13+00:00	43.0%	0.1%	20.4%	5.3%	8.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	43.1%	0.1%	20.5%	5.3%	8.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:23+00:00	43.1%	0.1%	20.5%	5.3%	8.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	43.1%	0.1%	20.5%	5.3%	8.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	43.1%	0.1%	20.5%	5.3%	8.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	43.1%	0.1%	25.9%	5.3%	8.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	43.1%	0.1%	25.9%	5.3%	8.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	43.1%	0.1%	25.9%	5.3%	8.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:56+00:00	33.8%	0.1%	25.9%	5.3%	44.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	33.8%	0.1%	25.9%	5.3%	44.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	33.8%	0.1%	25.9%	5.3%	44.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	33.8%	0.1%	25.9%	5.3%	44.8%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	33.8%	0.1%	25.9%	3.0%	44.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:23+00:00	33.8%	0.1%	26.5%	3.1%	44.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:05+00:00	33.8%	0.1%	26.5%	3.1%	44.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	33.8%	0.1%	26.5%	3.1%	44.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	37.1%	0.1%	26.5%	3.1%	44.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	37.1%	0.1%	26.5%	3.1%	44.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	37.1%	0.1%	26.5%	3.1%	44.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	37.1%	0.1%	26.5%	3.1%	44.8%
2026-10-17T04:41:24+00:00	37.1%	0.1%	26.5%	3.1%	44.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	37.1%	0.1%	27.8%	3.1%	44.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	37.1%	0.1%	27.8%	3.1%	44.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	37.1%	0.1%	27.8%	3.1%	44.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00	31.5%	0.1%	27.8%	4.6%	41.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	31.5%	0.1%	27.8%	4.6%	41.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:32+00:00	31.5%	0.1%	27.8%	4.6%	41.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	31.5%	0.1%	27.8%	4.6%	41.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	31.5%	0.1%	27.8%	4.6%	41.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	41%	83.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	82.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	82.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	74.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	76.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	77.2°F	2.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261023-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗