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KJAX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≤ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
15%
ICON
5%
EPS
4%
AIFS
2%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 8.0¢Risks 4.00u
VS
WN2NO 92.0¢Risks 46.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.00u · WN2 −46.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 68.9% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 69.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 76.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 20.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 20.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 93.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 26.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 13.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 19.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 23.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 21.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 19.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 7.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 60.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-08 06:0010-14 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0068.9%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0045.2%————60.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0017.9%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:003.1%————16.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0016.9%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0016.5%————9.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0021.2%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:002.3%————17.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:008.9%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0011.0%————8.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0013.4%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:004.0%————11.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0019.7%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:002.9%————10.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:002.7%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:005.5%————8.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:003.7%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:004.6%————10.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:004.6%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:006.3%————10.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0010.6%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:006.8%————7.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:009.7%—3.3%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0012.3%—4.0%——12.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:009.7%—5.0%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0015.8%————14.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0014.6%—4.0%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0047.5%—50.6%——14.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0012.8%—12.1%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:009.3%—50.6%——17.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:004.2%—33.3%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0030.0%69.4%12.8%——21.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:003.6%—8.9%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:005.2%5.4%14.5%93.3%—20.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:003.9%—18.0%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:004.9%3.8%10.6%26.6%—19.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:008.6%—8.9%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:006.3%9.7%9.3%13.8%—24.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:005.4%—13.7%——25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:005.1%12.7%7.2%19.5%—27.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:006.2%76.9%7.9%——25.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:006.6%20.1%5.8%23.2%—21.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:007.8%10.7%8.8%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010.9%20.2%8.6%21.4%—22.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0010.0%13.0%8.1%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:009.4%12.4%7.0%19.0%—19.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:009.6%9.2%7.0%——18.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:008.6%7.5%5.9%17.7%7.2%19.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:009.2%—5.4%——19.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES15%75.7°F5.0°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
ICON5%77.1°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast5%77.0°F3.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%74.0°F2.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend2%77.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single2%79.6°F4.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%79.0°F3.7°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 70°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261023-TMAX-LE70
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 70°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗