KJAX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≤ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.0¢Risks 4.00u

WN2NO 92.0¢Risks 46.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.00u · WN2 −46.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:32:52+00:00	2.3%	2.3%	0.8%	23.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	2.3%	2.3%	0.8%	23.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	2.3%	2.3%	0.8%	23.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	2.3%	2.3%	0.8%	23.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00	2.3%	2.3%	0.8%	23.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00	2.3%	1.8%	1.2%	23.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00	2.3%	1.8%	1.2%	23.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	2.3%	1.8%	1.2%	23.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	2.3%	1.8%	1.2%	23.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	2.2%	1.8%	1.2%	23.6%	12.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:23+00:00	2.2%	4.0%	1.2%	23.6%	12.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	2.2%	4.0%	1.2%	23.6%	12.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	2.2%	4.0%	1.2%	23.6%	12.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	2.2%	4.0%	1.4%	23.6%	12.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	2.2%	4.0%	1.4%	23.6%	12.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	2.2%	4.0%	1.4%	23.6%	12.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	2.2%	4.0%	1.4%	14.9%	8.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	2.2%	4.0%	1.4%	14.9%	8.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	2.2%	4.0%	1.4%	14.9%	8.4%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	2.2%	4.0%	1.4%	14.9%	8.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	2.2%	4.0%	1.4%	14.9%	8.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	2.2%	4.0%	1.1%	14.9%	8.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00	2.2%	4.0%	1.1%	14.9%	8.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	2.2%	4.0%	1.1%	14.9%	8.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	2.3%	4.0%	1.1%	14.9%	8.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	2.3%	4.0%	1.1%	14.9%	8.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	2.3%	4.0%	1.1%	14.9%	8.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:17+00:00	2.3%	4.0%	1.1%	14.9%	8.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	2.3%	4.0%	1.1%	14.9%	8.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	2.3%	4.0%	1.1%	14.9%	8.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	2.3%	4.0%	1.1%	14.9%	8.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	2.3%	4.0%	1.1%	14.9%	8.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	1.6%	4.0%	1.1%	14.9%	4.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	1.6%	4.0%	1.1%	14.9%	4.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	1.6%	4.0%	1.1%	14.9%	4.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	1.6%	4.0%	1.1%	14.9%	4.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	15%	75.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	5%	77.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	74.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	79.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	79.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 70°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261023-TMAX-LE70
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 70°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗