KJAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

47%

46%

13%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.9¢Risks 34.90u

EPSNO 65.1¢Risks 65.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.10u · EPS −65.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	—	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	62.8%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.7%	4.0%	60.7%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	7.7%	47.2%	1.8%	—	22.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	20.4%	33.7%	39.9%	—	17.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	12.2%	70.4%	28.3%	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	12.3%	29.5%	7.8%	—	14.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	1.2%	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	17.8%	15.7%	5.6%	—	13.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	7.5%	24.6%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	6.8%	16.1%	8.3%	47.4%	12.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	24.9%	—	—	8.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	64%	78.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	76.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	46%	75.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	69.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	73.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗