KJAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

47%

46%

13%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.9¢Risks 34.90u

EPSNO 65.1¢Risks 65.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.10u · EPS −65.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00	81.7%	64.6%	72.8%	18.9%	28.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	81.7%	64.6%	72.8%	18.9%	28.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:32+00:00	81.7%	64.6%	72.8%	18.9%	28.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	81.7%	64.6%	72.8%	18.9%	28.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	81.7%	64.6%	72.8%	18.9%	28.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	81.7%	53.3%	74.1%	18.9%	28.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	81.7%	53.3%	74.1%	18.9%	28.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	81.7%	53.3%	74.1%	18.9%	28.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00	63.6%	53.3%	74.1%	18.9%	28.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	63.6%	53.3%	74.1%	18.8%	28.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	63.6%	55.0%	74.1%	18.8%	28.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	63.6%	55.0%	74.1%	18.8%	28.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	63.6%	55.0%	53.9%	18.8%	28.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	63.6%	55.0%	53.9%	18.8%	28.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	63.6%	55.0%	53.9%	18.8%	28.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	63.6%	55.0%	53.9%	18.8%	28.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	60.3%	55.0%	53.9%	20.1%	36.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	60.3%	55.0%	53.9%	20.1%	36.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	60.3%	55.0%	53.9%	20.1%	36.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	60.3%	55.0%	53.9%	20.1%	36.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	60.3%	55.0%	49.2%	20.1%	36.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	60.3%	55.0%	49.2%	20.1%	36.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	60.3%	55.0%	49.2%	20.1%	36.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	60.3%	55.0%	49.2%	20.1%	36.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	61.0%	55.0%	49.2%	20.1%	36.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	61.0%	55.0%	49.2%	20.1%	36.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	61.0%	55.0%	49.2%	20.1%	36.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	61.0%	55.0%	49.2%	20.1%	36.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	61.0%	55.0%	50.8%	20.1%	36.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	61.0%	55.0%	50.8%	20.1%	36.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	61.0%	55.0%	50.8%	20.1%	36.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00	61.0%	55.0%	50.8%	20.1%	36.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:00+00:00	63.0%	55.0%	50.8%	13.4%	45.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	63.0%	55.0%	50.8%	13.4%	45.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	63.0%	55.0%	50.8%	13.4%	45.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	63.0%	55.0%	50.8%	13.4%	45.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	63.0%	5.6%	47.4%	13.4%	45.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	63.0%	5.6%	47.4%	13.4%	45.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	63.0%	5.6%	47.4%	13.4%	45.6%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	63.0%	5.6%	47.4%	13.4%	45.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	63.7%	6.1%	47.4%	13.4%	45.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	64%	78.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	76.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	46%	75.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	69.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	73.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗