KJAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

19%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 15.8¢Risks 15.75u

EPSNO 84.2¢Risks 84.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +84.25u · EPS −84.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	16.4%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	0.1%	13.9%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.2%	6.9%	0.0%	—	1.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	1.1%	2.9%	4.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.4%	16.0%	1.8%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.3%	1.6%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.0%	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.5%	0.4%	0.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	3.4%	0.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.7%	—	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	31%	81.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	19%	79.8°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	8%	70.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	77.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	70.8°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	77.4°F	2.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261024-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗