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KJAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
31%
WN2
19%
ICON
8%
HRES
2%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 15.8¢Risks 15.75u
VS
EPSNO 84.2¢Risks 84.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +84.25u · EPS −84.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:32+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00IFS HRES: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00IFS HRES: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:32+00:00IFS HRES: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:32+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:0010-17 07:4410-17 09:1610-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:0031.3%0.2%19.4%1.7%8.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:0031.3%0.2%19.4%1.7%8.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:32+00:0031.3%0.2%19.4%1.7%8.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0031.3%0.2%19.4%1.7%8.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:0031.3%0.2%19.4%1.7%8.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single31%81.7°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 219%79.8°F5.5°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
ICON8%70.8°F9.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend4%77.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES2%70.8°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%77.4°F2.4°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261024-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗