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KJAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≤ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
43%
HRES
39%
EPS
32%
WN2
9%
AIFS
6%
Consensus
18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 24.4¢Risks 24.40u
VS
AIFSNO 75.6¢Risks 75.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +75.60u · AIFS −75.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:16+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:16+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 42.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:16+00:00ICON: 42.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 42.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 42.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:16+00:006.1%32.3%8.9%39.0%42.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:006.1%32.3%8.9%39.0%42.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:006.1%32.3%8.9%39.0%42.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:006.1%32.3%8.9%39.0%42.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON43%71.4°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES39%71.9°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble32%71.6°F2.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast29%73.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend16%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 29%75.5°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single6%77.6°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 70°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261024-TMAX-LE70
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 70°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗