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KJAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≤ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
43%
HRES
39%
EPS
32%
WN2
9%
AIFS
6%
Consensus
18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 24.3¢Risks 24.35u
VS
AIFSNO 75.6¢Risks 75.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +75.65u · AIFS −75.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 64.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 39.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 84.7% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 36.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 57.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 53.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 37.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.9% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 85.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 19.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 28.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 58.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 63.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 52.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 10.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 51.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 93.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-09 06:0010-14 18:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0041.5%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0065.5%————51.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0017.9%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:005.1%————19.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0010.8%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:003.4%————10.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0011.2%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:001.8%————12.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0016.9%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:001.9%————12.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:002.1%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:002.7%————7.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:004.2%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:005.5%————9.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:002.7%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:005.3%————8.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:007.3%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:006.4%————7.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:005.5%—————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0017.4%————14.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:008.3%—30.7%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0013.0%————20.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0011.5%—31.6%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0019.3%————15.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0011.6%—15.5%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0036.3%————16.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:008.4%—24.8%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0036.4%————20.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0022.1%—18.0%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0012.7%—9.6%——20.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:006.1%—19.8%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:009.9%76.7%9.9%——26.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0025.0%—19.9%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0026.9%64.4%16.2%85.1%—38.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0026.5%—16.1%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0024.9%39.2%24.9%19.9%—43.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0023.8%—53.7%———
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0025.8%50.8%4.6%28.3%—40.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0026.6%—12.0%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0033.0%48.4%25.5%58.7%—43.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0025.6%84.7%27.0%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0030.8%36.9%40.1%63.1%—43.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0035.0%56.0%27.4%——93.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0024.8%57.0%37.1%52.6%10.5%43.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0024.9%—24.9%——50.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON43%71.4°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES39%71.9°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble32%71.6°F2.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast29%73.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend16%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 29%75.5°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single6%77.6°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 70°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261024-TMAX-LE70
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 70°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗