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KJAX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
81%
WN2
80%
ICON
76%
HRES
45%
EPS
40%
Consensus
61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 60.4¢Risks 60.35u
VS
EPSNO 39.6¢Risks 39.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +39.65u · EPS −39.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 74.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:17+00:00AIFS Single: 74.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00AIFS Single: 74.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00AIFS Single: 74.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00AIFS Single: 74.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:17+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:17+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS HRES: 44.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:17+00:00IFS HRES: 44.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 44.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 44.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:17+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00ICON: 75.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00ICON: 75.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00ICON: 75.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00ICON: 75.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00ICON: 75.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:17+00:00ICON: 75.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 75.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 75.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:17+00:0074.6%24.3%81.6%45.1%70.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:0074.6%24.3%81.6%45.1%70.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:0074.6%24.3%80.0%45.1%70.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:0074.6%24.3%80.0%45.1%70.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:0074.6%24.3%80.0%45.1%70.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:0080.8%24.3%80.0%45.1%75.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:0080.8%24.3%80.0%45.1%75.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:0080.8%24.3%80.0%45.1%75.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:0080.8%24.3%80.0%45.1%75.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:17+00:0080.8%39.9%79.8%44.6%75.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:0080.8%39.9%79.8%44.6%75.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0080.8%39.9%79.8%44.6%75.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0080.8%39.9%79.8%44.6%75.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single81%79.2°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 280%78.4°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON76%79.5°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend63%76.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%75.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES45%73.6°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble40%73.9°F2.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261026-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗