KJAX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

80%

76%

45%

40%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 60.4¢Risks 60.35u

EPSNO 39.6¢Risks 39.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +39.65u · EPS −39.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	73.9%	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	68.7%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	89.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	28.4%	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	13.5%	86.1%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	51.4%	55.6%	56.3%	6.9%	—	40.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	60.1%	76.3%	31.0%	13.2%	48.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	92.5%	—	—	5.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	79.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	78.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	76%	79.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	76.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	73.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	73.9°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261026-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗