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KJAX / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
74%
WN2
72%
HRES
45%
ICON
33%
EPS
21%
Consensus
45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 47.2¢Risks 47.20u
VS
EPSNO 52.8¢Risks 52.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.80u · EPS −52.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 92.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.4% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 73.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 79.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 53.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 72.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 84.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 62.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 76.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 77.6% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 63.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 59.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 53.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 51.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 52.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 46.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 47.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0016.2%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:006.4%———16.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0092.1%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0086.0%———63.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0081.4%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0086.3%———59.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0073.0%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0081.4%———53.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0074.3%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0060.0%———51.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0040.5%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0045.2%———52.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0055.3%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0035.4%———48.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0068.9%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0034.5%———46.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0044.7%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0053.7%———47.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0053.8%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0062.5%———48.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0041.1%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0054.5%———38.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0039.7%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0046.5%—79.1%—33.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0047.6%—53.0%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0045.8%———36.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0047.5%—13.3%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0044.4%—72.0%—37.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0044.9%—84.4%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0043.5%—62.8%—34.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0042.1%—81.1%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0048.6%6.4%76.7%10.8%40.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0043.8%—77.6%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single74%81.1°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 272%80.5°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend56%78.0°F3.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES45%76.7°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON33%73.1°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble21%75.8°F2.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261027-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗