WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KLAS / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 81°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 02:59 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
66%
AIFS
63%
WN2
44%
HRES
40%
EPS
22%
Consensus
45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 43.9¢Risks 43.85u
VS
EPSNO 56.1¢Risks 56.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +56.15u · EPS −56.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 61.3% · 2026-10-10T22:28:18+00:00AIFS Single: 61.3% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 61.3% · 2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:00AIFS Single: 61.3% · 2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:00AIFS Single: 63.3% · 2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:00AIFS Single: 63.3% · 2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00AIFS Single: 63.3% · 2026-10-11T02:59:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.9% · 2026-10-10T22:28:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.9% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.9% · 2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.9% · 2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.9% · 2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.9% · 2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.9% · 2026-10-11T02:59:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-10T22:28:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-11T02:59:23+00:00IFS HRES: 40.0% · 2026-10-10T22:28:18+00:00IFS HRES: 40.0% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 40.0% · 2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:00IFS HRES: 40.0% · 2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:00IFS HRES: 40.0% · 2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:00IFS HRES: 40.0% · 2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00IFS HRES: 40.0% · 2026-10-11T02:59:23+00:00ICON: 65.8% · 2026-10-10T22:28:18+00:00ICON: 65.8% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00ICON: 65.8% · 2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:00ICON: 65.8% · 2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:00ICON: 65.8% · 2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:00ICON: 65.8% · 2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00ICON: 65.8% · 2026-10-11T02:59:23+00:0010-10 22:2810-11 00:4310-11 02:59
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T02:59:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T22:28:18+00:0061.3%21.9%35.0%40.0%65.8%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:0061.3%21.9%43.6%40.0%65.8%
2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:0061.3%21.9%43.6%40.0%65.8%
2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:0061.3%21.9%43.6%40.0%65.8%
2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:0063.3%21.9%43.6%40.0%65.8%
2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:0063.3%21.9%43.6%40.0%65.8%
2026-10-11T02:59:23+00:0063.3%21.9%43.6%40.0%65.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON66%84.5°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:000.4330
AIFS Single63%82.4°F5.6°F2026-10-10 18:000.4007
National Blend55%81.0°F4.1°F2026-10-10 06:000.3014
WeatherNext 244%79.7°F4.9°F2026-10-10 12:000.1901
IFS HRES40%78.9°F6.3°F2026-10-10 12:000.1600
IFS Ensemble22%76.7°F4.9°F2026-10-10 00:000.0480

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261017-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 81°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗