KLAS / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 81°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

63%

44%

40%

22%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 43.9¢Risks 43.85u

EPSNO 56.1¢Risks 56.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +56.15u · EPS −56.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.5%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	31.3%	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	44.2%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	42.6%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	46.5%	34.3%	2.2%	—	6.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	48.5%	17.9%	—	7.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	37.2%	30.3%	35.8%	—	6.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	24.8%	24.8%	28.1%	—	3.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	20.7%	28.6%	33.0%	—	4.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	6.7%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	24.1%	21.4%	13.6%	—	3.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	24.9%	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	32.2%	19.0%	35.6%	—	2.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	7.4%	16.5%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	16.5%	20.3%	45.1%	—	2.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	15.2%	23.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	7.1%	19.0%	54.1%	—	2.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	13.8%	16.9%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	31.1%	13.7%	44.5%	0.0%	2.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	22.3%	15.4%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	16.8%	11.6%	44.2%	—	1.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	16.7%	9.7%	45.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	21.7%	11.8%	40.1%	8.0%	1.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	30.2%	9.8%	50.0%	—	2.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	24.0%	7.4%	44.6%	6.1%	0.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	15.6%	6.7%	44.4%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	23.4%	4.4%	26.8%	3.7%	1.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.8%	3.2%	28.5%	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.1%	2.0%	5.2%	3.4%	0.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.6%	1.0%	1.7%	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	66%	84.5°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.4330
AIFS Single	63%	82.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.4007
National Blend	55%	81.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-10 06:00	0.3014
WeatherNext 2	44%	79.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.1901
IFS HRES	40%	78.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.1600
IFS Ensemble	22%	76.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.0480

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261017-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 81°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗