KLAS / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 04:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.5¢Risks 15.50u

EPSNO 84.5¢Risks 84.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.50u · EPS −84.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	35.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	2.8%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	5.3%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	4.3%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	4.7%	2.3%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	4.6%	0.5%	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.0%	1.3%	1.8%	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	0.7%	0.9%	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.4%	0.7%	1.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%	0.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	1.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	31%	84.5°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0936
AIFS Single	10%	82.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.0102
NWS forecast	5%	80.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 02:00	0.0026
IFS HRES	5%	78.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0022
WeatherNext 2	2%	79.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0005
National Blend	2%	81.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-10 06:00	0.0004
IFS Ensemble	<1%	76.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261017-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 10 · 23:13 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas runs hot-for-here: 90°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗