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KLAS / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 04:30 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
31%
AIFS
10%
HRES
5%
WN2
2%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 15.5¢Risks 15.50u
VS
EPSNO 84.5¢Risks 84.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.50u · EPS −84.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-11T02:59:23+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-11T03:45:30+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-11T04:30:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.4% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.4% · 2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T02:59:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T03:45:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T04:30:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.3% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.3% · 2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.3% · 2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.3% · 2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.3% · 2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.3% · 2026-10-11T02:59:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.3% · 2026-10-11T03:45:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.3% · 2026-10-11T04:30:57+00:00IFS HRES: 4.7% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 4.7% · 2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:00IFS HRES: 4.7% · 2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:00IFS HRES: 4.7% · 2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:00IFS HRES: 4.7% · 2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00IFS HRES: 4.7% · 2026-10-11T02:59:23+00:00IFS HRES: 4.7% · 2026-10-11T03:45:30+00:00IFS HRES: 4.7% · 2026-10-11T04:30:57+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-10-11T02:59:23+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-10-11T03:45:30+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-10-11T04:30:57+00:0010-10 23:1310-11 02:1410-11 04:30
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T04:30:57+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:009.2%0.4%2.3%4.7%30.6%
2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:009.2%0.4%2.3%4.7%30.6%
2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:009.2%0.4%2.3%4.7%30.6%
2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:0010.1%0.4%2.3%4.7%30.6%
2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:0010.1%0.4%2.3%4.7%30.6%
2026-10-11T02:59:23+00:0010.1%0.4%2.3%4.7%30.6%
2026-10-11T03:45:30+00:0010.1%0.4%2.3%4.7%30.6%
2026-10-11T04:30:57+00:0010.1%0.4%2.3%4.7%30.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON31%84.5°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:000.0936
AIFS Single10%82.4°F5.6°F2026-10-10 18:000.0102
NWS forecast5%80.0°F5.8°F2026-10-11 02:000.0026
IFS HRES5%78.9°F6.3°F2026-10-10 12:000.0022
WeatherNext 22%79.7°F4.9°F2026-10-10 12:000.0005
National Blend2%81.0°F4.1°F2026-10-10 06:000.0004
IFS Ensemble<1%76.7°F4.9°F2026-10-10 00:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261017-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 10 · 23:13 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas runs hot-for-here: 90°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗