KLAS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

74%

58%

56%

36%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 63.1¢Risks 63.10u

ICONNO 36.9¢Risks 36.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +36.90u · ICON −36.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	60.7%	55.3%	21.9%	82.3%	71.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	60.7%	55.3%	24.9%	82.3%	71.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	60.7%	55.3%	24.9%	82.3%	71.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	60.7%	55.3%	24.9%	82.3%	71.4%
2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00	62.9%	55.3%	24.9%	84.0%	47.7%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	62.9%	55.3%	24.9%	84.0%	47.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	62.9%	55.3%	24.9%	84.0%	47.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	62.9%	55.3%	24.9%	84.0%	47.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	62.9%	55.3%	24.9%	84.0%	47.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00	62.9%	53.1%	23.5%	84.0%	47.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	62.9%	53.1%	23.5%	84.0%	47.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	62.9%	53.1%	23.5%	84.0%	47.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	64.8%	53.1%	23.5%	84.0%	47.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	64.8%	53.0%	23.5%	84.0%	47.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:22+00:00	64.8%	58.1%	23.5%	84.0%	47.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	64.8%	58.1%	23.5%	84.0%	47.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	64.8%	58.1%	25.7%	84.0%	47.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	64.8%	58.1%	25.7%	84.0%	47.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	64.8%	58.1%	25.7%	84.0%	47.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	64.8%	58.1%	25.7%	84.0%	47.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	80.6%	58.1%	25.7%	90.6%	35.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	80.6%	58.1%	25.7%	90.6%	35.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	80.6%	58.1%	25.7%	90.6%	35.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	80.6%	58.1%	25.7%	90.6%	35.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	80.6%	58.1%	55.5%	90.6%	35.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	80.6%	58.1%	55.5%	90.6%	35.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	80.6%	58.1%	55.5%	90.6%	35.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	80.6%	58.1%	55.5%	90.6%	35.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	74.5%	58.1%	55.5%	90.6%	35.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	74.5%	58.1%	55.5%	90.6%	35.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	74.5%	58.1%	55.5%	90.6%	35.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	91%	81.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0088
AIFS Single	74%	79.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0650
IFS Ensemble	58%	77.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1756
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
WeatherNext 2	56%	76.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1980
National Blend	46%	76.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.2970
ICON	36%	75.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4147

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗