KLAS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

74%

58%

56%

36%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 63.1¢Risks 63.10u

ICONNO 36.9¢Risks 36.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +36.90u · ICON −36.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	64.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	27.7%	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	78.0%	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	91.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	76.9%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	78.7%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	77.6%	69.5%	17.1%	—	39.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	79.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	75.7%	76.8%	60.8%	—	32.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.7%	71.7%	77.8%	68.4%	—	37.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	64.8%	80.0%	56.4%	—	30.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	78.7%	70.7%	65.5%	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	13.7%	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	58.7%	64.6%	75.9%	—	28.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	59.8%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	46.3%	58.2%	82.8%	—	31.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	51.9%	62.1%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	75.3%	47.1%	79.7%	—	29.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.0%	68.3%	66.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	64.1%	50.0%	77.3%	—	29.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	43.7%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	64.9%	7.0%	83.8%	—	36.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	71.4%	44.4%	1.8%	—	29.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	74.9%	12.7%	89.0%	—	31.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	39.3%	20.8%	47.6%	—	31.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	63.4%	5.2%	58.7%	5.9%	28.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	56.4%	3.2%	51.3%	—	21.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	50.0%	8.4%	85.9%	59.3%	40.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	37.7%	3.0%	76.8%	—	26.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	31.8%	7.8%	34.5%	57.2%	16.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	9.2%	5.1%	67.5%	—	19.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	33.1%	8.9%	59.4%	57.9%	23.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	40.2%	6.3%	54.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	91%	81.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0088
AIFS Single	74%	79.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0650
IFS Ensemble	58%	77.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1756
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
WeatherNext 2	56%	76.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1980
National Blend	46%	76.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.2970
ICON	36%	75.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4147

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗