KLAS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

39%

32%

25%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 30.9¢Risks 30.90u

WN2NO 69.1¢Risks 69.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +69.10u · WN2 −69.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	14.7%	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	61.8%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	59.7%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	61.3%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	59.1%	49.3%	6.9%	—	21.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	55.8%	57.3%	39.2%	—	15.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	50.0%	57.6%	46.2%	—	18.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	41.3%	59.5%	33.0%	—	13.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	56.6%	46.7%	40.9%	—	15.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	4.1%	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	33.0%	38.8%	51.7%	—	10.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	33.4%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	21.6%	31.4%	60.0%	—	11.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	25.3%	34.3%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	48.0%	21.0%	53.9%	—	10.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	39.1%	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	34.0%	21.9%	49.0%	—	9.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	16.9%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	33.1%	1.1%	56.5%	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	38.9%	16.1%	0.2%	—	8.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	41.9%	2.2%	63.7%	—	8.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	11.9%	4.3%	16.7%	—	8.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	27.6%	0.5%	23.6%	0.6%	6.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	20.9%	0.2%	17.4%	—	4.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	15.7%	0.9%	52.7%	22.0%	10.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	8.6%	0.2%	37.7%	—	4.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	5.9%	0.6%	6.8%	18.2%	1.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.7%	0.3%	24.8%	—	2.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	5.2%	0.6%	17.1%	16.1%	2.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	6.8%	0.3%	13.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	58%	80.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3329
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.3114
National Blend	41%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1673
ICON	39%	78.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1513
AIFS Single	32%	77.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1024
IFS Ensemble	25%	77.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0630
WeatherNext 2	4%	74.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0017

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗