KLAS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

39%

32%

25%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 30.9¢Risks 30.90u

WN2NO 69.1¢Risks 69.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +69.10u · WN2 −69.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:20:17+00:00	65.4%	13.6%	63.5%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:25+00:00	65.4%	13.6%	63.5%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	65.4%	13.6%	63.5%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:58+00:00	68.6%	13.6%	63.5%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	68.5%	13.6%	63.5%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:15+00:00	68.5%	11.0%	63.5%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	68.5%	11.0%	63.5%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:28+00:00	68.5%	11.0%	63.5%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:05+00:00	68.5%	11.0%	58.8%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:15+00:00	68.5%	11.0%	58.8%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	68.5%	11.0%	58.8%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:35+00:00	64.6%	11.0%	58.8%	43.1%	72.2%
2026-10-11T20:28:43+00:00	64.6%	11.0%	58.8%	43.1%	72.2%
2026-10-11T21:13:56+00:00	64.6%	11.0%	58.8%	43.1%	72.2%
2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00	64.6%	11.0%	58.8%	43.1%	72.2%
2026-10-11T22:44:17+00:00	64.6%	11.0%	58.8%	43.1%	72.2%
2026-10-11T23:29:39+00:00	64.6%	11.0%	46.8%	43.1%	72.2%
2026-10-12T00:14:48+00:00	64.6%	11.0%	46.8%	43.1%	72.2%
2026-10-12T01:00:17+00:00	64.6%	11.0%	46.8%	43.1%	72.2%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	68.5%	11.0%	46.8%	43.1%	72.2%
2026-10-12T02:30:33+00:00	68.5%	11.0%	46.8%	43.1%	72.2%
2026-10-12T03:15:41+00:00	68.5%	11.0%	46.8%	43.1%	72.2%
2026-10-13T04:16:37+00:00	73.3%	6.7%	69.3%	58.4%	69.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	73.3%	6.7%	56.9%	58.4%	69.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	73.3%	6.7%	56.9%	58.4%	69.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	73.3%	6.7%	56.9%	58.4%	69.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	73.3%	6.7%	56.9%	58.4%	69.1%
2026-10-13T08:04:27+00:00	69.5%	6.7%	56.9%	53.5%	60.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	69.5%	6.7%	56.9%	53.5%	60.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	69.5%	6.7%	56.9%	53.5%	60.1%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	69.5%	6.7%	56.9%	53.5%	60.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:29+00:00	69.5%	9.5%	40.3%	53.5%	60.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00	69.5%	9.5%	40.3%	53.5%	60.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	69.5%	9.5%	40.3%	53.5%	60.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	69.5%	9.5%	40.3%	53.5%	60.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	66.4%	9.5%	40.4%	53.5%	60.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00	66.4%	7.5%	40.4%	53.5%	60.1%
2026-10-14T03:00:17+00:00	72.1%	7.5%	45.2%	62.9%	71.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:42+00:00	72.1%	7.5%	45.2%	62.9%	71.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:48+00:00	72.1%	7.5%	45.2%	62.9%	71.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	72.1%	7.5%	45.2%	62.9%	71.8%
2026-10-14T06:01:03+00:00	72.1%	7.5%	45.2%	62.9%	71.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	72.1%	7.5%	45.2%	62.9%	71.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	53.5%	7.5%	45.2%	62.9%	46.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	53.5%	7.5%	45.2%	62.9%	46.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	53.5%	7.5%	45.2%	62.9%	46.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	53.5%	7.5%	45.2%	62.9%	46.7%
2026-10-14T10:35:02+00:00	53.5%	7.5%	45.2%	41.3%	46.7%
2026-10-14T11:21:06+00:00	53.5%	9.8%	30.5%	41.3%	46.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:16+00:00	53.5%	9.8%	30.5%	41.3%	46.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	53.5%	9.8%	30.5%	41.3%	46.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	67.6%	9.8%	30.5%	41.3%	46.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	67.6%	9.8%	30.5%	41.3%	47.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:49+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	30.5%	41.3%	47.5%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	30.5%	41.3%	47.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	30.5%	41.3%	47.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	36.3%	41.3%	47.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	36.3%	41.3%	47.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	36.3%	41.3%	47.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	36.3%	59.5%	36.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	36.3%	59.5%	36.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	36.3%	59.5%	36.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	36.3%	59.5%	36.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	36.3%	59.5%	36.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	30.5%	59.5%	36.2%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	30.5%	59.5%	36.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	30.5%	59.5%	36.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	61.1%	6.3%	30.5%	59.5%	36.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	61.1%	6.3%	30.5%	59.5%	36.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	61.1%	6.3%	30.5%	59.5%	36.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:42+00:00	61.1%	6.3%	30.5%	59.5%	36.2%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	61.1%	6.3%	30.5%	59.5%	36.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	61.1%	6.3%	29.5%	59.5%	36.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	61.1%	6.3%	29.5%	59.5%	36.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:42+00:00	61.1%	6.3%	29.5%	59.5%	36.2%
2026-10-15T07:50:42+00:00	55.6%	6.3%	29.5%	49.1%	55.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	55.6%	6.3%	29.5%	49.1%	55.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	55.6%	6.3%	29.5%	49.1%	55.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	55.6%	6.3%	29.5%	49.1%	55.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:52+00:00	55.6%	6.3%	22.9%	49.1%	55.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:43+00:00	55.6%	6.3%	22.9%	49.1%	55.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	55.6%	9.8%	22.9%	49.1%	55.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00	55.6%	9.8%	22.9%	49.1%	55.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	59.2%	10.0%	22.9%	49.1%	55.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	59.2%	10.0%	22.9%	49.1%	55.0%
2026-10-16T04:25:17+00:00	38.1%	13.7%	11.2%	41.1%	41.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	38.1%	13.7%	13.6%	41.1%	41.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	38.1%	13.7%	13.6%	41.1%	41.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	38.1%	13.7%	13.6%	41.1%	41.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	54.9%	13.7%	13.6%	41.1%	29.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	54.9%	13.7%	13.6%	41.1%	29.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	54.9%	13.7%	13.6%	41.1%	29.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	54.9%	13.7%	13.6%	41.1%	29.6%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	54.9%	13.7%	13.6%	41.1%	29.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	54.9%	19.5%	12.9%	41.1%	29.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	54.9%	19.5%	12.9%	41.1%	29.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	54.9%	19.5%	12.9%	41.1%	29.6%
2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00	38.4%	19.5%	12.9%	61.5%	29.6%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	38.4%	19.6%	12.9%	61.5%	29.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:51+00:00	38.4%	25.2%	12.9%	61.5%	29.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	38.4%	25.1%	12.9%	61.5%	29.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	38.4%	25.1%	12.9%	61.5%	29.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	38.4%	25.1%	2.3%	61.5%	29.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	38.4%	25.1%	2.3%	61.5%	29.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	38.4%	25.1%	2.3%	61.5%	29.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	33.8%	25.1%	2.3%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	33.8%	25.1%	2.3%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	33.8%	25.1%	2.3%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	33.8%	25.1%	2.3%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	33.8%	25.1%	2.3%	57.7%	38.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	33.8%	25.1%	4.1%	57.7%	38.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	33.8%	25.1%	4.1%	57.7%	38.9%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	33.8%	25.1%	4.1%	57.7%	38.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	32.0%	25.1%	4.1%	57.7%	38.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	32.0%	25.1%	4.1%	57.7%	38.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00	32.0%	25.1%	4.1%	57.7%	38.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	32.0%	25.1%	4.1%	57.7%	38.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	58%	80.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3329
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.3114
National Blend	41%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1673
ICON	39%	78.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1513
AIFS Single	32%	77.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1024
IFS Ensemble	25%	77.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0630
WeatherNext 2	4%	74.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0017

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗