KLAS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

58%

45%

43%

35%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 52.2¢Risks 52.25u

WN2NO 47.8¢Risks 47.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +47.75u · WN2 −47.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	52.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	15.4%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	56.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	44.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	69.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	25.7%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	4.5%	73.5%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	63.1%	76.5%	5.2%	—	39.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	54.4%	63.6%	48.5%	—	39.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	64.2%	71.7%	78.4%	—	43.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	46.8%	49.2%	62.5%	—	28.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	30.8%	59.9%	74.9%	—	23.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	6.7%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	56.1%	58.7%	70.9%	—	27.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	56.3%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	52.8%	54.6%	77.0%	—	32.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	42.5%	34.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	34.8%	30.4%	75.3%	—	26.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	38.2%	37.2%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	39.8%	36.9%	80.3%	—	36.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	23.6%	32.6%	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	46.7%	32.1%	45.6%	0.0%	35.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	38.9%	27.6%	0.0%	—	36.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	37.4%	35.2%	50.0%	34.1%	39.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	26.3%	38.1%	58.4%	—	34.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	41.3%	25.6%	24.6%	—	36.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	32.5%	29.1%	48.7%	—	34.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	42.0%	34.3%	65.7%	34.3%	36.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	50.0%	25.3%	62.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	48.5%	24.5%	51.4%	20.2%	34.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	45.5%	26.0%	54.5%	—	32.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	46.8%	17.1%	56.3%	31.7%	29.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	51.6%	14.1%	48.4%	—	32.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	70%	81.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0924
AIFS Single	58%	80.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1781
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954
IFS Ensemble	45%	79.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3069
ICON	43%	78.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3215
WeatherNext 2	35%	78.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.4238
National Blend	32%	78.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.4597

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗