KLAS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

58%

45%

43%

35%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 52.2¢Risks 52.25u

WN2NO 47.8¢Risks 47.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +47.75u · WN2 −47.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:42+00:00	70.0%	23.3%	59.6%	48.6%	51.3%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	70.0%	23.3%	59.6%	48.6%	51.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	70.0%	23.3%	58.7%	48.6%	51.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	70.0%	23.3%	58.7%	48.6%	51.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:42+00:00	70.0%	23.3%	58.7%	48.6%	51.3%
2026-10-15T07:50:42+00:00	69.9%	23.3%	58.7%	57.9%	69.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	69.9%	23.3%	58.7%	57.9%	69.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	69.9%	23.3%	58.7%	57.9%	69.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	69.9%	23.3%	58.7%	57.9%	69.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:52+00:00	69.9%	23.3%	58.5%	57.9%	69.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:43+00:00	69.9%	23.3%	58.5%	57.9%	69.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	69.9%	26.3%	58.5%	57.9%	69.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00	69.9%	26.3%	58.5%	57.9%	69.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	69.2%	26.3%	58.5%	57.9%	68.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	69.2%	26.3%	58.5%	57.9%	68.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:45+00:00	69.2%	31.0%	58.5%	57.9%	68.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	69.2%	31.0%	58.5%	57.9%	68.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	69.2%	31.0%	58.5%	57.9%	68.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	69.2%	31.0%	58.5%	57.9%	68.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	69.2%	31.0%	58.5%	57.9%	68.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	69.2%	31.0%	58.5%	57.9%	68.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	54.3%	31.0%	58.5%	67.0%	66.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	54.3%	31.0%	58.5%	67.0%	66.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	54.3%	31.0%	58.5%	67.0%	66.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	54.3%	31.0%	58.5%	67.0%	66.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	54.3%	31.0%	31.4%	67.0%	66.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	54.3%	31.0%	31.4%	67.0%	66.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	54.3%	31.0%	31.4%	67.0%	66.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	60.3%	31.0%	31.4%	67.0%	66.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	60.3%	31.0%	31.4%	67.0%	66.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	60.3%	31.0%	31.4%	67.0%	66.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	60.3%	31.0%	31.4%	67.0%	66.0%
2026-10-16T04:25:17+00:00	60.3%	31.0%	31.4%	67.0%	66.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	60.3%	31.0%	42.5%	67.0%	66.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	60.3%	31.0%	42.5%	67.0%	66.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	60.3%	31.0%	42.5%	67.0%	66.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	58.3%	31.0%	42.5%	67.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	58.3%	31.0%	42.5%	67.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	58.3%	31.0%	42.5%	67.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	58.3%	31.0%	42.5%	67.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	58.3%	31.0%	42.5%	67.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	58.3%	32.6%	44.1%	67.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	58.3%	32.6%	44.1%	67.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	58.3%	32.6%	44.1%	67.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00	58.3%	32.6%	44.1%	80.2%	41.0%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	58.3%	32.6%	44.1%	80.2%	41.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:40+00:00	53.7%	39.5%	40.6%	66.5%	47.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	53.7%	39.5%	38.3%	66.5%	47.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	53.7%	39.5%	38.3%	66.5%	47.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	53.7%	39.5%	38.3%	66.5%	47.0%
2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00	54.9%	39.5%	38.3%	69.6%	43.3%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	54.9%	39.5%	38.3%	69.6%	43.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	54.9%	39.5%	38.3%	69.6%	43.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	54.9%	39.5%	38.3%	69.6%	43.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	54.9%	39.5%	38.3%	69.6%	43.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00	54.9%	44.5%	34.9%	69.6%	43.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	54.9%	44.5%	34.9%	69.6%	43.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	54.9%	44.5%	34.9%	69.6%	43.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	57.8%	44.5%	34.9%	69.6%	43.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	57.8%	44.6%	34.9%	69.6%	43.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	70%	81.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0924
AIFS Single	58%	80.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1781
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954
IFS Ensemble	45%	79.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3069
ICON	43%	78.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3215
WeatherNext 2	35%	78.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.4238
National Blend	32%	78.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.4597

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗