KLAS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

61%

59%

54%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.2¢Risks 33.20u

EPSNO 66.8¢Risks 66.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.80u · EPS −66.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	35.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	7.0%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	12.7%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	1.4%	54.7%	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	42.3%	57.7%	1.6%	—	21.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	33.0%	42.0%	27.9%	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	41.7%	50.0%	58.3%	—	23.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	24.8%	26.8%	39.0%	—	12.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	12.9%	35.3%	51.7%	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	1.6%	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	30.7%	33.0%	45.6%	—	10.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	30.2%	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	26.6%	28.2%	51.8%	—	12.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	18.4%	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	13.1%	10.7%	48.0%	—	8.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	14.6%	14.0%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	15.1%	13.4%	53.1%	—	13.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	6.5%	10.6%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	18.3%	9.9%	17.6%	0.0%	11.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	12.9%	7.5%	0.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	11.6%	10.5%	19.1%	10.0%	12.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	6.2%	11.4%	24.4%	—	9.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	12.4%	5.5%	5.2%	—	10.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	7.7%	6.4%	15.8%	—	8.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	11.3%	7.9%	27.3%	7.9%	8.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	14.7%	4.3%	23.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	13.0%	3.7%	14.6%	2.7%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	63%	85.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	84.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	83.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	83.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	75.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261019-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 83°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗