KLAS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

61%

59%

54%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.2¢Risks 33.20u

EPSNO 66.8¢Risks 66.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.80u · EPS −66.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:49:13+00:00	44.3%	8.6%	50.8%	41.9%	19.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00	44.3%	8.6%	50.8%	41.9%	19.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	44.3%	8.6%	50.8%	41.9%	19.4%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	44.3%	8.6%	50.8%	41.9%	19.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	44.3%	8.6%	50.8%	41.9%	19.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:42+00:00	44.3%	8.6%	38.9%	41.9%	19.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:52+00:00	44.3%	5.6%	38.9%	41.9%	19.4%
2026-10-12T13:06:00+00:00	44.3%	5.6%	38.9%	41.9%	19.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:12+00:00	51.4%	5.6%	38.9%	41.9%	19.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	51.4%	5.6%	38.9%	41.9%	19.5%
2026-10-12T15:27:51+00:00	51.4%	5.6%	38.9%	41.9%	19.5%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	51.4%	3.0%	38.9%	41.9%	19.5%
2026-10-12T16:58:09+00:00	51.4%	3.0%	48.4%	41.9%	19.5%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	51.4%	3.0%	48.4%	41.9%	19.5%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	51.4%	3.0%	48.4%	41.9%	19.5%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	51.4%	3.0%	48.4%	41.9%	19.5%
2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00	57.1%	3.0%	48.4%	54.4%	63.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00	57.1%	3.0%	48.4%	54.4%	63.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	57.1%	3.0%	48.4%	54.4%	63.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	57.1%	3.0%	48.4%	54.4%	63.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	57.1%	3.0%	58.8%	54.4%	63.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	57.1%	3.0%	58.8%	54.4%	63.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	57.1%	3.0%	58.8%	54.4%	63.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00	57.1%	3.0%	58.8%	54.4%	63.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:51+00:00	61.2%	3.0%	58.8%	54.4%	63.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	61.2%	3.0%	58.8%	54.4%	63.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	61.2%	3.0%	58.8%	54.4%	63.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	63%	85.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	84.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	83.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	83.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	75.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261019-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 83°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗