KLAS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 03:00 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

31%

18%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 17.3¢Risks 17.30u

EPSNO 82.7¢Risks 82.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +82.70u · EPS −82.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	0.9%	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	1.7%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.1%	18.4%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	10.5%	19.4%	0.1%	—	3.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	6.2%	9.6%	4.6%	—	2.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	8.7%	12.5%	17.4%	—	3.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	3.0%	3.4%	6.9%	—	0.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.9%	5.1%	11.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.0%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	3.4%	3.9%	7.7%	—	0.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	3.1%	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.2%	2.5%	9.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.0%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.5%	0.3%	6.5%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	0.5%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	0.4%	7.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	0.2%	0.5%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.6%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	35%	85.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1197
ICON	31%	85.0°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0961
AIFS Single	18%	83.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0317
NWS forecast	10%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0106
WeatherNext 2	8%	82.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0072
National Blend	<1%	83.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	<1%	75.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261019-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗