KLAS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 03:00 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

31%

18%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 17.3¢Risks 17.30u

EPSNO 82.7¢Risks 82.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +82.70u · EPS −82.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T03:00:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:49:13+00:00	11.2%	0.0%	13.3%	12.5%	7.1%
2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00	11.2%	0.0%	13.3%	12.5%	7.1%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	11.2%	0.0%	13.3%	12.5%	7.1%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	11.2%	0.0%	13.3%	12.5%	7.1%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	11.2%	0.0%	13.3%	12.5%	7.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:09+00:00	15.1%	0.0%	10.6%	12.5%	7.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	15.1%	0.0%	10.6%	12.5%	7.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	15.1%	0.0%	10.6%	12.5%	7.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	15.1%	0.0%	10.6%	12.5%	7.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00	18.7%	0.0%	10.6%	20.2%	39.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00	18.7%	0.0%	10.6%	20.2%	39.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	18.7%	0.0%	10.6%	20.2%	39.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	18.7%	0.0%	10.6%	20.2%	39.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	18.7%	0.0%	16.2%	20.2%	39.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	18.7%	0.0%	16.2%	20.2%	39.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	18.7%	0.0%	16.2%	20.2%	39.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00	18.7%	0.0%	16.2%	20.2%	39.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:51+00:00	21.7%	0.0%	16.2%	20.2%	39.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	21.7%	0.0%	16.2%	20.2%	39.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	21.7%	0.0%	16.2%	20.2%	39.7%
2026-10-13T04:16:38+00:00	21.7%	0.0%	16.2%	20.2%	39.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	21.7%	0.0%	13.9%	20.2%	39.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	21.7%	0.0%	13.9%	20.2%	39.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	21.7%	0.0%	13.9%	20.2%	39.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	21.7%	0.0%	13.9%	20.2%	39.7%
2026-10-13T08:04:27+00:00	16.4%	0.0%	13.9%	25.1%	24.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	16.4%	0.0%	13.9%	25.1%	24.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	16.4%	0.0%	13.9%	25.1%	24.3%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	16.4%	0.0%	13.9%	25.1%	24.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:29+00:00	16.4%	0.0%	8.7%	25.1%	24.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00	16.4%	0.0%	8.7%	25.1%	24.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	16.4%	0.0%	8.7%	25.1%	24.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	16.4%	0.0%	8.7%	25.1%	24.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	15.4%	0.0%	8.8%	25.1%	24.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00	15.4%	0.0%	8.8%	25.1%	24.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:00	15.4%	0.0%	8.8%	25.1%	24.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	15.4%	0.0%	8.8%	25.1%	24.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00	15.4%	0.0%	8.8%	25.1%	24.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	15.4%	0.0%	8.8%	25.1%	24.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	15.4%	0.0%	8.8%	25.1%	24.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	16.3%	0.0%	8.8%	25.1%	31.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	16.3%	0.0%	8.8%	25.1%	31.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	16.3%	0.0%	8.8%	25.1%	31.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	16.3%	0.0%	8.8%	25.1%	31.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	16.3%	0.0%	8.8%	34.6%	31.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	16.3%	0.0%	8.5%	34.6%	31.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	16.3%	0.0%	8.5%	34.6%	31.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	16.3%	0.0%	8.5%	34.6%	31.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	17.8%	0.0%	8.5%	34.6%	31.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	17.8%	0.0%	8.5%	34.6%	31.0%
2026-10-14T03:00:18+00:00	17.8%	0.0%	8.5%	34.6%	31.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	35%	85.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1197
ICON	31%	85.0°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0961
AIFS Single	18%	83.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0317
NWS forecast	10%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0106
WeatherNext 2	8%	82.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0072
National Blend	<1%	83.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	<1%	75.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261019-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗