KLAS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 13 · 10:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

57%

48%

43%

39%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 63.1¢Risks 63.15u

WN2NO 36.9¢Risks 36.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.85u · WN2 −36.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	—	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	34.1%	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	36.0%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	14.7%	14.3%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	68.3%	21.4%	15.3%	—	35.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	86.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	76.8%	83.9%	70.9%	—	50.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	79.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	56.1%	74.2%	90.7%	—	62.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	6.4%	69.2%	49.2%	—	59.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	75.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	82.2%	78.1%	89.9%	—	59.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	15.2%	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	26.2%	74.5%	84.9%	—	53.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	6.3%	68.2%	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	17.2%	77.0%	83.4%	—	75.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	50.0%	69.1%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	69.6%	67.8%	87.9%	—	80.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	46.0%	55.0%	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	58.2%	66.0%	97.2%	0.0%	81.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	75.5%	51.1%	74.7%	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	72.7%	55.5%	81.0%	94.7%	—	85.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	71.4%	22.3%	80.2%	1.7%	—	85.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	66.9%	86.0%	96.5%	0.0%	90.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	85.5%	81.7%	97.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	84.1%	84.1%	96.7%	82.6%	89.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	87.2%	87.8%	97.8%	—	84.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	69.3%	86.6%	88.7%	98.7%	87.4%	78.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	94.6%	83.6%	96.3%	—	68.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	96.5%	89.2%	97.9%	81.8%	83.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	87.2%	96.6%	—	88.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	87%	79.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	76.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	76.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	75.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	43%	73.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	74.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261020-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 76°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗