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KLAS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 13 · 10:20 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
87%
HRES
57%
AIFS
48%
ICON
43%
WN2
39%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 63.1¢Risks 63.15u
VS
WN2NO 36.9¢Risks 36.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.85u · WN2 −36.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-13T08:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-13T08:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.0% · 2026-10-13T08:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.0% · 2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.0% · 2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.0% · 2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-13T08:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-13T08:04:27+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:0010-13 08:0410-13 09:3410-13 10:20
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:04:27+00:0047.9%87.3%39.0%57.5%43.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:0047.9%87.3%39.0%57.5%43.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:0047.9%87.3%39.0%57.5%43.2%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:0047.9%87.3%39.0%57.5%43.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble87%79.6°F3.6°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
IFS HRES57%76.7°F6.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
National Blend53%76.0°F7.7°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
AIFS Single48%75.2°F5.6°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
ICON43%73.8°F9.9°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 239%74.0°F5.3°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261020-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 76°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗