KLAS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

48%

40%

22%

14%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 36.0¢Risks 36.00u

ICONNO 64.0¢Risks 64.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +64.00u · ICON −64.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:37+00:00	52.9%	49.0%	36.1%	82.3%	8.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	52.9%	49.0%	48.7%	82.3%	8.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	52.9%	49.0%	48.7%	82.3%	8.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	52.9%	49.0%	48.7%	82.3%	8.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:59+00:00	48.0%	49.0%	48.7%	81.3%	12.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	48.0%	49.0%	48.7%	81.3%	12.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	48.0%	49.0%	48.7%	81.3%	12.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	48.0%	49.0%	48.7%	81.3%	12.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:29+00:00	48.0%	49.0%	48.7%	81.3%	12.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:23+00:00	48.0%	47.9%	36.6%	81.3%	12.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	48.0%	47.9%	36.6%	81.3%	12.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	48.0%	47.9%	36.6%	81.3%	12.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	45.0%	47.9%	36.6%	81.3%	12.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	44.9%	47.9%	36.6%	81.3%	12.9%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	44.9%	47.9%	36.6%	81.3%	12.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	44.9%	47.9%	36.6%	81.3%	12.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	44.9%	47.9%	36.6%	81.3%	12.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	44.9%	47.9%	34.0%	81.3%	12.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	44.9%	47.9%	34.0%	81.3%	12.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	44.9%	47.9%	34.0%	81.3%	12.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	42.9%	47.9%	34.0%	58.5%	13.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	42.9%	47.9%	34.0%	58.5%	13.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	42.9%	47.9%	34.0%	58.5%	13.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	42.9%	47.9%	34.0%	58.5%	13.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	42.9%	47.9%	34.0%	58.5%	13.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	42.9%	47.9%	22.5%	58.5%	13.5%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	42.9%	47.9%	22.5%	58.5%	13.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	42.9%	47.9%	22.5%	58.5%	13.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	40.0%	47.9%	22.5%	58.5%	13.5%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	40.0%	47.9%	22.5%	58.5%	13.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	40.0%	47.9%	22.5%	58.5%	13.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	82.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	81.3°F	3.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	80.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	79.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	14%	77.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗