KLAS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

48%

40%

22%

14%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 36.0¢Risks 36.00u

ICONNO 64.0¢Risks 64.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +64.00u · ICON −64.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	8.8%	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	9.0%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	1.9%	1.8%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	28.1%	3.2%	1.9%	—	7.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	35.7%	45.6%	29.1%	—	14.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	16.0%	30.9%	56.8%	—	20.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	0.3%	24.2%	11.1%	—	16.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	36.9%	31.5%	50.8%	—	15.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	1.0%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	2.5%	25.5%	38.8%	—	10.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	0.2%	19.0%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	1.0%	25.9%	33.9%	—	24.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	7.7%	17.7%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	17.1%	15.9%	38.5%	—	27.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	5.4%	8.4%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	9.0%	12.8%	64.1%	0.0%	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	5.8%	17.6%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	6.6%	22.1%	48.9%	—	27.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	0.7%	19.8%	0.0%	—	26.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	9.4%	25.1%	52.3%	0.0%	32.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	22.5%	18.3%	57.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	19.1%	19.1%	48.8%	17.4%	26.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	20.9%	21.9%	52.6%	—	17.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	18.2%	21.0%	58.0%	19.1%	10.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	31.2%	13.2%	37.7%	—	5.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	35.8%	17.2%	44.2%	10.2%	11.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	12.8%	32.5%	—	13.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	82.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	81.3°F	3.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	80.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	79.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	14%	77.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗