KLAS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

29%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 16.3¢Risks 16.30u

WN2NO 83.7¢Risks 83.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +83.70u · WN2 −83.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.4%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	—	1.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.6%	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	2.5%	22.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	4.9%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.0%	0.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.2%	0.9%	11.8%	—	1.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.4%	0.9%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	3.2%	1.1%	34.7%	—	2.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	1.5%	21.0%	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	1.9%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	2.6%	4.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.0%	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	1.3%	11.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	2.1%	11.6%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.2%	7.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.8%	4.9%	1.2%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.4%	10.9%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	29%	84.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	10%	81.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	81.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	82.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	79.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	80.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261021-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 17 · 19:56 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗