WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KLAS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
29%
ICON
10%
AIFS
9%
EPS
7%
WN2
4%
Consensus
4%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 16.3¢Risks 16.30u
VS
WN2NO 83.7¢Risks 83.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +83.70u · WN2 −83.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T04:15:02+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-10-18T04:15:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T04:15:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-18T04:15:02+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00ICON: 9.8% · 2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00ICON: 9.8% · 2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00ICON: 9.8% · 2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00ICON: 9.8% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00ICON: 9.8% · 2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00ICON: 9.8% · 2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00ICON: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00ICON: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00ICON: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00ICON: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00ICON: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00ICON: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T04:15:02+00:00ICON: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00ICON: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00ICON: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00ICON: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:0010-17 19:5610-18 01:5810-18 07:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:0012.4%7.4%1.5%28.8%9.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:0012.4%7.4%1.5%28.8%9.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:0012.4%7.4%1.5%28.8%9.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:0012.4%7.4%1.5%28.8%9.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:0012.4%7.4%1.3%28.8%9.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:0012.4%7.4%1.3%28.8%9.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:0012.4%7.4%1.3%28.8%9.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:0012.4%7.4%1.3%28.8%9.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:009.2%7.4%1.3%28.8%9.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:009.2%7.4%1.3%28.8%9.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:009.2%7.4%1.3%28.8%9.8%
2026-10-18T04:15:02+00:009.2%7.4%1.3%28.8%9.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:009.2%7.4%3.8%28.8%9.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:009.2%7.4%3.8%28.8%9.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:009.2%7.4%3.8%28.8%9.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:009.2%7.4%3.8%28.8%9.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES29%84.7°F5.0°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
ICON10%81.2°F4.9°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
AIFS Single9%81.4°F4.6°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble7%82.0°F3.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend6%79.0°F5.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%80.9°F3.7°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
NWS forecast<1%78.0°F3.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261021-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 17 · 19:56 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗