KLAS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

57%

39%

20%

14%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 49.4¢Risks 49.35u

WN2NO 50.6¢Risks 50.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +50.65u · WN2 −50.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	34.1%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	24.1%	—	—	59.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.4%	29.4%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	36.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	9.6%	34.3%	1.0%	—	28.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	39.9%	79.5%	48.5%	—	17.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	15.1%	18.4%	30.3%	—	19.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	9.3%	35.9%	64.1%	—	46.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	23.1%	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	61.5%	11.6%	59.1%	—	52.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	17.3%	35.0%	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	29.1%	53.5%	71.6%	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	8.1%	56.3%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	8.3%	79.7%	84.5%	—	26.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	33.5%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	17.7%	36.6%	84.7%	—	29.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	12.4%	58.9%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	27.6%	63.1%	88.7%	—	19.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	29.8%	81.7%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	33.1%	66.9%	79.4%	10.9%	34.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	73.3%	27.6%	—	18.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	85%	78.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	73.3°F	9.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	72.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	39%	68.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	66.6°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	66.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗