KLAS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

57%

39%

20%

14%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 49.4¢Risks 49.35u

WN2NO 50.6¢Risks 50.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +50.65u · WN2 −50.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T10:53:52+00:00	2.8%	49.6%	25.5%	28.0%	13.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:43+00:00	2.8%	49.6%	25.5%	28.0%	13.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	2.8%	54.4%	25.5%	28.0%	13.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00	2.8%	54.4%	25.5%	28.0%	13.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	3.5%	54.4%	25.8%	28.2%	13.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	3.5%	54.4%	25.8%	28.2%	13.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:47+00:00	3.5%	57.3%	25.8%	28.2%	13.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	3.5%	57.3%	25.8%	28.2%	13.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	3.5%	57.3%	28.4%	28.2%	13.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	3.5%	57.3%	28.4%	28.2%	13.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	3.5%	57.3%	28.4%	28.2%	13.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	3.5%	57.3%	28.4%	28.2%	13.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	7.5%	57.3%	28.4%	84.8%	38.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	7.5%	57.3%	28.4%	84.8%	38.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	7.5%	57.3%	28.4%	84.8%	38.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	7.5%	57.3%	28.4%	84.8%	38.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	7.5%	57.3%	13.9%	84.8%	38.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	7.5%	57.3%	13.9%	84.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	7.5%	57.3%	13.9%	84.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	19.5%	57.3%	13.9%	84.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	19.5%	57.3%	13.9%	84.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	19.5%	57.3%	13.9%	84.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	19.5%	57.3%	13.9%	84.8%	38.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	85%	78.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	73.3°F	9.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	72.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	39%	68.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	66.6°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	66.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗