KLAS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

64%

37%

37%

26%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 51.0¢Risks 51.00u

ICONNO 49.0¢Risks 49.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.00u · ICON −49.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	28.5%	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	19.3%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	23.8%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	6.9%	28.1%	0.6%	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	33.0%	74.0%	41.3%	—	13.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	11.0%	13.8%	23.9%	—	14.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	6.4%	28.8%	56.4%	—	38.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	17.3%	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	53.3%	8.0%	50.8%	—	44.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	12.3%	27.4%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	22.1%	44.8%	63.7%	—	25.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	5.2%	47.3%	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	5.3%	72.6%	78.4%	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	25.3%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	12.1%	27.9%	78.2%	—	21.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	8.0%	49.0%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	19.7%	53.1%	83.0%	—	12.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	21.3%	73.8%	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	23.8%	56.5%	70.8%	6.6%	24.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	63.3%	19.0%	—	11.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	76%	77.8°F	7.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	74.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	71.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	71.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	26%	69.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗