KLAS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

64%

37%

37%

26%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 51.0¢Risks 51.00u

ICONNO 49.0¢Risks 49.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.00u · ICON −49.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:14+00:00	32.4%	81.3%	33.4%	23.0%	35.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	32.4%	81.8%	33.4%	23.0%	35.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	32.4%	81.8%	33.4%	23.0%	35.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	32.4%	81.8%	40.5%	23.0%	35.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:40+00:00	32.4%	81.8%	40.5%	23.0%	35.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	32.4%	81.8%	40.5%	23.0%	35.6%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	29.3%	81.8%	40.5%	46.0%	13.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	29.3%	81.8%	40.5%	46.0%	13.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	29.3%	81.8%	40.5%	46.0%	13.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	29.3%	81.8%	40.5%	46.0%	13.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	29.3%	81.8%	40.5%	46.0%	13.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	29.3%	81.8%	46.8%	46.0%	13.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	29.3%	81.8%	46.8%	46.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	29.3%	81.8%	46.8%	46.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	41.4%	81.8%	46.8%	46.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	41.4%	81.8%	46.8%	46.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	41.4%	81.8%	46.8%	46.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	41.4%	81.8%	46.8%	46.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:38+00:00	41.4%	81.8%	46.8%	46.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	41.4%	81.8%	56.4%	46.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	41.4%	81.8%	56.4%	46.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	41.4%	81.8%	56.4%	46.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:59+00:00	32.8%	81.8%	56.4%	64.8%	15.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	32.8%	81.8%	56.4%	64.8%	15.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	32.8%	81.8%	56.4%	64.8%	15.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	32.8%	81.8%	56.4%	64.8%	15.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:29+00:00	32.8%	81.8%	56.4%	64.8%	15.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:23+00:00	32.8%	75.9%	53.5%	64.8%	15.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	32.8%	75.9%	53.5%	64.8%	15.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	32.8%	75.9%	53.5%	64.8%	15.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	37.2%	75.9%	53.5%	64.8%	15.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	37.1%	75.9%	53.6%	64.8%	15.2%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	37.1%	76.3%	53.6%	64.8%	15.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	37.1%	76.3%	53.6%	64.8%	15.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	37.1%	76.3%	53.6%	64.8%	15.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	37.1%	76.3%	48.8%	64.8%	15.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	37.1%	76.3%	48.8%	64.8%	15.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	37.1%	76.3%	48.8%	64.8%	15.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	25.6%	76.3%	48.8%	64.0%	25.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	25.6%	76.3%	48.8%	64.0%	25.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	25.6%	76.3%	48.8%	64.0%	25.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	25.6%	76.3%	48.8%	64.0%	25.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	25.6%	76.3%	48.8%	64.0%	25.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	25.6%	76.3%	37.2%	64.0%	25.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	25.6%	76.3%	37.2%	64.0%	25.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	25.6%	76.3%	37.2%	64.0%	25.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	37.1%	76.3%	37.2%	64.0%	25.7%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	37.1%	76.3%	37.2%	64.0%	25.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	37.1%	76.3%	37.2%	64.0%	25.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	76%	77.8°F	7.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	74.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	71.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	71.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	26%	69.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗