KLAS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

51%

17%

17%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 48.9¢Risks 48.90u

ICONNO 51.1¢Risks 51.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +51.10u · ICON −51.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	18.9%	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	11.7%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	14.7%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	3.3%	17.5%	0.2%	—	13.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	21.0%	60.8%	27.9%	—	7.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	5.4%	7.0%	13.8%	—	7.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	2.7%	16.9%	40.5%	—	24.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	8.8%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	36.9%	3.4%	34.5%	—	28.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	5.6%	15.2%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	11.3%	28.4%	46.5%	—	13.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	1.9%	30.2%	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	1.9%	55.5%	62.7%	—	9.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	12.7%	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	4.9%	14.2%	61.5%	—	10.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	2.8%	29.9%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	8.6%	33.0%	67.0%	—	4.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	9.2%	54.2%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	10.4%	35.1%	50.0%	2.0%	10.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	41.0%	7.5%	—	4.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	80.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	74.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	73.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	70.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	71.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	69.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗