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KLAS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
89%
HRES
51%
AIFS
17%
WN2
17%
ICON
9%
Consensus
30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 48.9¢Risks 48.90u
VS
ICONNO 51.1¢Risks 51.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +51.10u · ICON −51.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-20T04:05:51+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.2% · 2026-10-20T04:05:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.8% · 2026-10-20T04:05:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T04:05:51+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 51.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00IFS HRES: 51.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS HRES: 51.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 51.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 51.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-10-20T04:05:51+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:51+00:0021.2%67.2%17.8%46.4%12.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:0021.2%67.2%17.8%46.4%12.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:0021.2%67.2%20.2%46.4%12.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0021.2%67.2%20.2%46.4%12.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:0021.2%67.2%20.2%46.4%12.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:0017.3%67.2%20.2%46.4%8.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:0017.3%67.2%20.2%46.4%8.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:0017.3%67.2%20.2%46.4%8.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0017.3%67.2%20.2%46.4%8.4%
2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:0017.3%88.9%16.7%51.0%8.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:0017.3%88.9%16.7%51.0%8.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0017.3%88.9%16.7%51.0%8.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0017.3%88.9%16.7%51.0%8.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:0017.3%88.9%16.6%51.0%8.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble89%80.5°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%75.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES51%74.6°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend32%73.0°F3.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single17%70.7°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 217%71.5°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON9%69.7°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗