KLAS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≤ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

21%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.6¢Risks 13.60u

EPSNO 86.4¢Risks 86.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.40u · EPS −86.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	41.3%	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	51.9%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	97.2%	97.7%	44.6%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	36.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	93.5%	72.5%	38.2%	94.8%	—	44.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	93.8%	31.7%	5.9%	24.3%	—	57.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	23.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	84.9%	60.6%	55.3%	40.2%	—	53.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	69.8%	33.0%	12.3%	—	24.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	46.7%	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.9%	12.9%	63.9%	14.3%	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	53.4%	31.9%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	37.1%	16.7%	7.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	69.0%	14.5%	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	67.8%	3.9%	2.6%	—	38.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	30.1%	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	48.0%	26.3%	2.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	56.0%	11.0%	—	—	88.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	33.0%	8.6%	1.2%	—	43.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	29.8%	2.5%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	25.5%	6.2%	2.8%	55.5%	24.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	4.0%	29.6%	—	41.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	27%	69.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	70.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	71.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	73.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	74.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	1%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 67°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261022-TMAX-LE67
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 67°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗