KLAS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≤ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

21%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.6¢Risks 13.60u

EPSNO 86.4¢Risks 86.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.40u · EPS −86.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:59+00:00	22.9%	3.0%	13.7%	39.7%	25.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	22.9%	3.0%	13.7%	39.7%	25.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	22.9%	3.0%	13.7%	39.7%	25.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	22.9%	3.0%	13.7%	39.7%	25.6%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	22.9%	6.4%	18.1%	39.7%	25.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	22.9%	6.4%	18.1%	39.7%	25.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	22.9%	6.4%	18.1%	39.7%	25.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	22.9%	6.4%	18.1%	39.7%	25.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	26.4%	6.5%	18.1%	39.7%	25.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:15+00:00	26.4%	6.5%	18.1%	39.7%	25.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	26.4%	6.0%	18.1%	39.7%	25.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	26.4%	6.0%	18.1%	39.7%	25.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	26.4%	6.0%	13.6%	39.7%	25.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:40+00:00	26.4%	6.0%	13.6%	39.7%	25.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	26.4%	6.0%	13.6%	39.7%	25.6%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	29.3%	6.0%	13.6%	18.4%	52.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	29.3%	6.0%	13.6%	18.4%	52.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	29.3%	6.0%	13.6%	18.4%	52.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	29.3%	6.0%	13.6%	18.4%	52.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	29.3%	6.0%	13.6%	18.4%	52.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	29.3%	6.0%	10.4%	18.4%	52.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	29.3%	6.0%	10.4%	18.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	29.3%	6.0%	10.4%	18.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	19.2%	6.0%	10.4%	18.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	19.2%	6.0%	10.4%	18.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	19.2%	6.0%	10.4%	18.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	19.2%	6.0%	10.4%	18.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T04:31:38+00:00	19.2%	6.0%	10.4%	18.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	19.2%	6.0%	6.7%	18.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	19.2%	6.0%	6.7%	18.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	19.2%	6.0%	6.7%	18.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:59+00:00	23.4%	6.0%	6.7%	6.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	23.4%	6.0%	6.7%	6.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	23.4%	6.0%	6.7%	6.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	23.4%	6.0%	6.7%	6.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:29+00:00	23.4%	6.0%	6.7%	6.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:23+00:00	23.4%	8.4%	5.8%	6.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	23.4%	8.4%	5.8%	6.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	23.4%	8.4%	5.8%	6.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	20.0%	8.4%	5.8%	6.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	19.9%	8.4%	5.7%	6.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	5.7%	6.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	5.7%	6.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	5.7%	6.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	7.2%	6.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	7.2%	6.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	7.2%	6.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	30.3%	8.2%	7.2%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	30.3%	8.2%	7.2%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	30.3%	8.2%	7.2%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	30.3%	8.2%	7.2%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	30.3%	8.2%	7.2%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	30.3%	8.2%	12.3%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	30.3%	8.2%	12.3%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	30.3%	8.2%	12.3%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	12.3%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	12.3%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	12.3%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-20T04:05:56+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	12.3%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	12.3%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	10.6%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	10.6%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	10.6%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	21.4%	8.2%	10.6%	6.9%	27.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	21.4%	8.2%	10.6%	6.9%	27.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	21.4%	8.2%	10.6%	6.9%	27.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	21.4%	8.2%	10.6%	6.9%	27.8%
2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00	21.4%	0.4%	9.8%	4.2%	27.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	21.4%	0.4%	9.8%	4.2%	27.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	21.4%	0.4%	9.8%	4.2%	27.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	21.4%	0.4%	9.8%	4.2%	27.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	21.4%	0.4%	9.8%	4.2%	26.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	27%	69.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	70.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	71.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	73.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	74.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	1%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 67°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261022-TMAX-LE67
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 67°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗