KLAS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

80%

69%

62%

48%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 69.2¢Risks 69.15u

EPSNO 30.9¢Risks 30.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +30.85u · EPS −30.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	57.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	24.6%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	8.0%	15.5%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	48.6%	78.6%	58.4%	18.4%	—	43.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	66.3%	84.4%	88.7%	—	45.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	69.1%	71.7%	78.9%	—	28.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	64.1%	79.4%	47.6%	—	25.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	53.3%	70.7%	61.5%	—	19.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	31.1%	87.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	66.2%	70.1%	81.6%	57.0%	38.8%	24.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	73.6%	—	—	20.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	76.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	74.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	69%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	71.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	70.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261024-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗