KLAS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

80%

69%

62%

48%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 69.2¢Risks 69.15u

EPSNO 30.9¢Risks 30.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +30.85u · EPS −30.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:38+00:00	82.7%	57.6%	51.7%	47.0%	81.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	82.7%	57.6%	63.4%	47.0%	81.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	82.7%	57.6%	63.4%	47.0%	81.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	82.7%	57.6%	63.4%	47.0%	81.1%
2026-10-19T07:34:00+00:00	84.9%	57.6%	63.4%	70.4%	76.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	84.9%	57.6%	63.4%	70.4%	76.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	84.9%	57.6%	63.4%	70.4%	76.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	84.9%	57.6%	63.4%	70.4%	76.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:29+00:00	84.9%	57.6%	63.4%	70.4%	76.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:23+00:00	84.9%	50.9%	59.6%	70.4%	76.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	84.9%	50.9%	59.6%	70.4%	76.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	84.9%	50.9%	59.6%	70.4%	76.9%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	86.2%	50.9%	59.6%	70.4%	76.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	86.3%	50.9%	59.6%	70.4%	77.0%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	86.3%	51.9%	59.6%	70.4%	77.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	86.3%	51.9%	59.6%	70.4%	77.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	86.3%	51.9%	59.6%	70.4%	77.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	86.3%	51.9%	72.8%	70.4%	77.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	86.3%	51.9%	72.8%	70.4%	77.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	86.3%	51.9%	72.8%	70.4%	77.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	87.2%	51.9%	72.8%	71.6%	69.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	87.2%	51.9%	72.8%	71.6%	69.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	87.2%	51.9%	72.8%	71.6%	69.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	87.2%	51.9%	72.8%	71.6%	69.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	87.2%	51.9%	72.8%	71.6%	69.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	87.2%	51.9%	62.4%	71.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	87.2%	51.9%	62.4%	71.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	87.2%	51.9%	62.4%	71.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	83.9%	51.9%	62.4%	71.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	83.9%	51.9%	62.4%	71.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	83.9%	51.9%	62.4%	71.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T04:05:57+00:00	83.9%	51.9%	62.4%	71.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	83.9%	51.9%	62.4%	71.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	83.9%	51.9%	60.6%	71.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	83.9%	51.9%	60.6%	71.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	83.9%	51.9%	60.6%	71.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	90.1%	51.9%	60.6%	71.6%	80.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	90.1%	51.9%	60.6%	71.6%	80.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	90.1%	51.9%	60.6%	71.6%	80.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	90.1%	51.9%	60.6%	71.6%	80.0%
2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00	90.1%	48.1%	61.6%	69.1%	80.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	90.1%	48.1%	61.6%	69.1%	80.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	90.1%	48.1%	61.6%	69.1%	80.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	90.1%	48.1%	61.6%	69.1%	80.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	90.2%	48.1%	61.6%	69.2%	80.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	76.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	74.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	69%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	71.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	70.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261024-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗