KLAS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

87%

86%

83%

80%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 86.0¢Risks 43.00u

WN2NO 14.0¢Risks 7.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +7.00u · WN2 −7.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	43.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	26.2%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	89.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	76.9%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	9.9%	93.2%	—	—	78.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	84.7%	86.7%	87.4%	18.9%	—	73.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	83.5%	90.4%	73.4%	—	64.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	82.6%	89.7%	73.0%	98.7%	—	59.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	95.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	85.5%	86.4%	77.0%	61.0%	61.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	78.8%	—	—	54.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	76.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	87%	75.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	86%	79.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	72.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	72.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261025-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 18 · 11:03 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗