KLAS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

87%

86%

83%

80%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 86.0¢Risks 43.00u

WN2NO 14.0¢Risks 7.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +7.00u · WN2 −7.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	95.7%	83.1%	79.4%	84.3%	38.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	95.7%	83.1%	79.4%	84.3%	38.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	95.7%	83.1%	79.4%	84.3%	38.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	95.7%	83.1%	79.4%	84.3%	38.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	96.2%	83.1%	79.4%	84.3%	38.2%
2026-10-18T14:56:15+00:00	96.2%	83.1%	79.4%	84.3%	38.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	96.2%	82.9%	79.4%	84.3%	38.2%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	96.2%	82.9%	79.4%	84.3%	38.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	96.2%	82.9%	77.1%	84.3%	38.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:40+00:00	96.2%	82.9%	77.1%	84.3%	38.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	96.2%	82.9%	77.1%	84.3%	38.2%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	95.4%	82.9%	77.1%	87.4%	86.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	95.4%	82.9%	77.1%	87.4%	86.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	95.4%	82.9%	77.1%	87.4%	86.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	95.4%	82.9%	77.1%	87.4%	86.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	95.4%	82.9%	77.1%	87.4%	86.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	95.4%	82.9%	80.5%	87.4%	86.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	95.4%	82.9%	80.5%	87.4%	86.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	95.4%	82.9%	80.5%	87.4%	86.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	91.5%	82.9%	80.5%	87.4%	86.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	91.5%	82.9%	80.5%	87.4%	86.2%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	91.5%	82.9%	80.5%	87.4%	86.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	91.5%	82.9%	80.5%	87.4%	86.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	76.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	87%	75.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	86%	79.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	72.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	72.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261025-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 18 · 11:03 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗