KLAS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

87%

81%

73%

27%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 58.8¢Risks 58.75u

ICONNO 41.2¢Risks 41.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.25u · ICON −41.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	44.0%	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	78.9%	—	—	53.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	92.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	24.1%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	3.5%	78.7%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	76.5%	85.1%	61.1%	13.0%	—	61.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	81.1%	78.5%	74.0%	44.9%	60.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	83.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	78.4%	80.5%	95.6%	—	50.8%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	78.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	78.2%	—	66.3%	—	45.2%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	67.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	79.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	87%	78.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	75.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	74.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	65.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261026-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 72°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗