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KLAS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
90%
HRES
87%
EPS
81%
WN2
73%
ICON
27%
Consensus
78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 58.8¢Risks 58.75u
VS
ICONNO 41.2¢Risks 41.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.25u · ICON −41.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-19T07:34:00+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-19T07:34:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.3% · 2026-10-19T07:34:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:29+00:00IFS HRES: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T07:34:00+00:00IFS HRES: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS HRES: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS HRES: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:29+00:00ICON: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T07:34:00+00:00ICON: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00ICON: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00ICON: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:29+00:0010-19 07:3410-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:29+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:34:00+00:0090.4%80.6%73.3%87.4%27.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:0090.4%80.6%73.3%87.4%27.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:0090.4%80.6%73.3%87.4%27.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0090.4%80.6%73.3%87.4%27.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:29+00:0090.4%80.6%73.3%87.4%27.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single90%79.0°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES87%78.9°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble81%75.9°F5.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 273%74.9°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
National Blend54%72.0°F5.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON27%65.4°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261026-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 72°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗