KLAS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

16%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.2¢Risks 13.15u

EPSNO 86.9¢Risks 86.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.85u · EPS −86.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:34:01+00:00	16.9%	4.6%	4.0%	19.3%	2.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	16.9%	4.6%	4.0%	19.3%	2.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	16.9%	4.6%	4.0%	19.3%	2.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	16.9%	4.6%	4.0%	19.3%	2.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:29+00:00	16.9%	4.6%	4.0%	19.3%	2.8%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	16.9%	1.4%	2.8%	19.3%	2.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	16.9%	1.4%	2.8%	19.3%	2.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	16.9%	1.4%	2.8%	19.3%	2.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	20.2%	1.4%	2.8%	19.3%	2.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	20.2%	1.4%	2.7%	19.2%	2.8%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	20.2%	1.5%	2.7%	19.2%	2.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	20.2%	1.5%	2.7%	19.2%	2.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	20.2%	1.5%	2.7%	19.2%	2.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	20.2%	1.5%	6.1%	19.2%	2.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	20.2%	1.5%	6.1%	19.2%	2.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	20.2%	1.5%	6.1%	19.2%	2.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	19.7%	1.5%	6.1%	25.7%	40.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	19.7%	1.5%	6.1%	25.7%	40.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	19.7%	1.5%	6.1%	25.7%	40.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	19.7%	1.5%	6.1%	25.7%	40.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	19.7%	1.5%	6.1%	25.7%	40.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	19.7%	1.5%	4.0%	25.7%	40.2%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	19.7%	1.5%	4.0%	25.7%	40.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	19.7%	1.5%	4.0%	25.7%	40.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	15.2%	1.5%	4.0%	25.7%	40.2%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	15.2%	1.5%	4.0%	25.7%	40.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	15.2%	1.5%	4.0%	25.7%	40.2%
2026-10-20T04:05:57+00:00	15.2%	1.5%	4.0%	25.7%	40.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	15.2%	1.5%	4.0%	25.7%	40.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	15.2%	1.5%	2.9%	25.7%	40.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	15.2%	1.5%	2.9%	25.7%	40.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	15.2%	1.5%	2.9%	25.7%	40.2%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	15.9%	1.5%	2.9%	25.7%	25.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	15.9%	1.5%	2.9%	25.7%	25.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	15.9%	1.5%	2.9%	25.7%	25.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	15.9%	1.5%	2.9%	25.7%	25.9%
2026-10-20T10:54:29+00:00	15.9%	0.4%	2.1%	13.7%	25.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	15.9%	0.4%	2.1%	13.7%	25.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	15.9%	0.4%	2.1%	13.7%	25.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	15.9%	0.4%	2.1%	13.7%	25.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	15.8%	0.4%	2.1%	13.7%	25.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	26%	79.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	79.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	77.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	75.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	72.8°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261026-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗